What Are the FIFA World Rankings?
The FIFA World Rankings are a ranking system for men's national football (soccer) teams published monthly by FIFA, the sport's global governing body. First introduced in 1992, the rankings are used to determine seedings for FIFA World Cup qualifying draws, the World Cup itself, and other major international tournaments.
As of 2018, FIFA switched from its long-criticized previous formula to a system based on the Elo rating methodology — the same mathematical framework used in chess and competitive video games.
The Current System: SUM of Points
Under the current system, a national team's ranking points after a match are calculated using this core formula:
P = Pbefore + I × (W − We)
- Pbefore = Points before the match
- I = Importance of the match (weighting factor)
- W = Result (1 for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss)
- We = Expected result based on rating difference
Match Importance Weightings
Not all wins are equal. FIFA assigns an importance factor (I) to different competition types:
| Competition Type | Importance (I) |
|---|---|
| Friendly matches | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup qualifiers / Continental qualifiers | 25 or 35 |
| Continental final tournaments (AFCON, Copa América, etc.) | 35 |
| FIFA Confederations Cup | 40 |
| FIFA World Cup final tournament | 50 |
This means a friendly win over a top-10 side earns far fewer points than the same result in a World Cup qualifying match.
The Expected Result Calculation
The expected result (We) is determined by the ratings gap between the two teams. If both teams are rated equally, each has a 50% expected win probability. A 100-point gap roughly equates to a 64% win probability for the higher-rated team.
This means beating a highly-ranked team is disproportionately rewarded, while losing to a much weaker team is disproportionately punished.
Handling Penalty Shootouts
Matches decided by penalty kicks treat the result as a draw for ranking purposes (both teams receive 0.5 for W), even though one team advances. This acknowledges the near-random nature of penalty shootouts as a performance indicator.
How Rankings Are Published
FIFA publishes updated rankings on set dates throughout the year — roughly monthly, with exact dates announced in advance. Teams only see their rankings change if they've played a match since the last update. Teams that haven't played retain their previous ranking points exactly.
Common Criticisms of the FIFA Rankings
Despite the improvement over the old system, the current rankings face ongoing scrutiny:
- Friendly match inflation: Teams that play many high-weight friendlies against strong opponents can game the system slightly
- Confederation strength imbalance: A team from a weaker confederation may face fundamentally easier opponents in qualifiers, earning the same points as a team in a brutally competitive qualifying group
- Small island nations: Teams that rarely play international fixtures can retain artificially stable (or stale) rankings
- No home/away adjustment: Unlike some Elo variants, FIFA's system doesn't explicitly adjust for home advantage in the formula itself
The Women's Rankings: A Separate System
FIFA also publishes separate World Rankings for women's national teams, using the same Elo-based methodology introduced to the men's game in 2018. The women's rankings were updated to the new system in 2022.
Why Rankings Matter Beyond Prestige
The practical stakes of FIFA rankings are significant:
- World Cup seedings: Top-ranked teams are placed in favorable draw pots, avoiding each other in the group stage
- Qualifying group assignments: Rankings determine pot placement in continental qualifiers
- Playoff seedings: For intercontinental playoff rounds, rankings determine home/away advantage
- Tournament invitations: Some invitational tournaments use rankings as eligibility criteria